HA! Sneak Preview vs. Frankenstein's Monster

Is the description “his actions last year to block the use of Japanese ships to refuel U.S. vessels** around Afghanistan” a gross simplification? I think I went a bit overboard here. The bulk of the current refueling activities was being conducted for the benefit of non-U.S. ships. It was in the initial stages—admittedly the peak—of the operations, before Ozawa took a stand on the issue, that U.S. Navy vessels figured heavily in the picture. But I say I went overboard because I do believe that Ozawa’s standing-up-to-the-Americans sentiments was an important undercurrent—I dare not guess at its relative importance compared to political exigencies on the domestic front—so it is not totally inappropriate, though inaccurate, to refer to U.S. vessels.


“Pundits now say that as prime minister, Ozawa might push for a major rethink of the bilateral relationship. Karel Van Wolferen, a veteran Japan observer, says, "Ozawa might be enough of a switch to make Washington sit up—momentarily—and stop taking Tokyo for granted.”

Before I go on, let me take the time to say something about von Wolferen’s book The Enigma of Japanese Power that’s been on my mind for a long, long time. I thought—still think—that it was a brilliant book. I thought that it was a masterly piece of research, and his central thesis, that there was no there there when it came to Japan Inc.—or so I understood at the time—rang true, still does. However, the book also left me with the thought:Who in the world would want to live in such a bleak place? Yet many people, including von Wolferen and, yes, myself, chose to live. It was like those horror movies where everything looks so normal yet doesn’t. I’ve half a mind to reread that book; older if not wiser, I might gain some insight there. Anyhow…


Japan, the United Kingdom and Canada are reliable allies. As such, they can be expected to be less of a variable for U.S. foreign policy and national security than the rest of the EU, China, the Russia, Arab oil producers, and other countries with which the U.S. has significant relationships. If low maintenance means “taken for granted”, perhaps that’s true. But does anyone say with a straight face, the U.K./Canada is being “taken for granted”? I suspect that there’s another layer of meaning here, often explicitly stated, that Japan will meekly follow the U.S. lead. Not so. Take North Korea. I’m sure the State Department wishes that the Japanese government will
a) Drop the abduction issue and concentrate on North Korea’s nuclear issue. Won’t happen.
b) Side with Israel against the Arabs when UN resolutions come up for voting. Won’t happen.
It is easy to forget that Japan was the first significant Western democracy to extend a hand to China after the 1989 Tienanmen Incident. Likewise that it took enormous pressure from the U.S. to make Japanese “businesses” give up most of the exploration rights to the Azadegan oil fields in Iran. Even with regard to the core of the argument here on the bilateral relationship, that is, the military, the U.S. authorities have taken serious political steps to bring Japan on board with regard to Afghanistan and Iraq.

But what to make of this “push for a major rethink” in the minds of the generic “pundits”, if it happens? I think (I can’t be sure) that I’ve expressed my skepticism at such a turn of events before, and that there is likely to be some noise, but not much change under an Ozawa administration. More important, von Wolferen appears to think so too, if his sly insertion of the word “momentarily” is any indication. So we’re left with a paragraph that apparently implies that Ozawa might push for a major rethink (but not necessarily a redo) but that von Wolferen thinks that not much will come of it. Or are we? Now sometimes, we just have to accept the uncertainty; after all, we’re talking about the future and what will be in the minds of Ozawa and his colleagues then. Still, it is a weird sensation to be led hither with talk of all the things Ozawa has been saying and doing to complicate relations with the United States, only to be suddenly left in the mists of might-iness.